Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities
Abstract
Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological
framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning
(EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic
risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness
of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-
time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant
potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific
research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and
highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented
here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its
scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.