Communicating uncertainties of future coastal impacts for decision making
Résumé
As sea-level rises, coastal hazards and risks such as extreme flooding or erosion are
changing. For accurate assessments, several factors must be considered, such as the
variability of sea-level rise and storm surge patterns. We proceed to a global
sensitivity analysis of future coastal impacts of sea-level rise, in order to provide
quantitative insight into the relative importance of contributing uncertainties over the
coming decades. The method is applied for typical coastal settings of high- and lowenergy
coasts. Storm surge propagation processes, then sea-level variability, and,
later, global sea-level rise scenarios become successively important source of
uncertainties over the 21st century. This defines research priorities that depend on
the target period of interest. On the long term, scenarios RCP 6.0 and 8.0 challenge
local capacities of adaptation for the considered sites. For decision makers concerned
with adaptation to climate change in coastal areas, this approach provides
quantitative insight into three key issues related to: (1) the timeliness of coastal
adaptation planning (2) the identification of periods by which rising sea-levels cause
rapid obsolescence of regular adaptation measures (3) the constraints imposed by
different future climate change scenarios for long-term adaptation planning.
Domaines
Sciences de la TerreOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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