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Article Dans Une Revue Earth's Future Année : 2023

Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application

Résumé

We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1-2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2-4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi-centennial projections combined into multi-study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock-ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea-level rise.
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Dates et versions

hal-04344036 , version 1 (14-12-2023)

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Fiona E Turner, Victor Malagon Santos, Tamsin L Edwards, Aimée B A Slangen, Robert J Nicholls, et al.. Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application. Earth's Future, 2023, 11 (12), pp.e2023EF003550. ⟨10.1029/2023ef003550⟩. ⟨hal-04344036⟩

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