Article Dans Une Revue Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Année : 2025

Investigating the potential of time‐varying free parameters in equilibrium shoreline change models through data assimilation

Résumé

Equilibrium shoreline change models with calibrated, time‐invariant free parameters have demonstrated good skill in hindcasting shoreline evolution at sites dominated by cross‐shore sediment transport. However, their performance can be biased by the specific conditions present during the calibration period. In this study, a dual parameter‐state ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was applied to track non‐stationarity in model free parameters at three sites along the west coast of Europe. Introducing time‐varying parameters did not substantially improve performance relative to an already well‐calibrated stationary model. Model skill improvement occurred mainly during the EnKF correction step, highlighting the potential of real‐time data assimilation for maintaining model stability. Although variations in model parameters may compensate for unresolved processes and should be interpreted cautiously, incorporating climate‐driven, time‐varying parameters could improve extreme‐event predictions at seasonally dominated sites and enhance overall model performance in regions influenced by complex, multimodal wave climates.

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hal-05442063 , version 1 (05-01-2026)

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Georgios Azorakos, Bruno Castelle, Déborah Idier, Vincent Marieu, Raimundo Ibaceta, et al.. Investigating the potential of time‐varying free parameters in equilibrium shoreline change models through data assimilation. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2025, 50 (15), ⟨10.1002/esp.70221⟩. ⟨hal-05442063⟩
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