%0 Unpublished work %T Revealing the dependence structure of scenario-like inputs in numerical environmental simulations using Gaussian Process regression %+ Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) %+ Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse (INSA Toulouse) %A Rohmer, Jeremy %A Roustant, Olivier %A Lecacheux, Sophie %A Manceau, Jean-Charles %Z PSO DRP Incertitudes %Z Document de travail %8 2020-12-11 %D 2020 %K Categorical variables %K Computationally intensive simulator %K Metamodel %K Kriging %K Model selection %Z Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation %Z Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society %Z Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering %Z Statistics [stat]/Machine Learning [stat.ML] %Z Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] %Z Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography %Z Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology %Z Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statisticsPreprints, Working Papers, ... %X Model uncertainties (related to the structure/form of the model or to the choice of "appropriate" physical laws) are generally integrated in environmental long running numerical simulators via scenario-like variables. By focusing on Gaussian Processes (GP), we show how different categorical covariance functions (exchangeable, ordinal, group, etc.) can bring valuable insights into the inter-dependencies of these scenarios. Supported by two real case applications (cycloneinduced waves and reservoir modelling), we have proposed a cross-validation approach to select the most appropriate covariance function by finding a trade-off between predictability, explainability, and stability of the covariance coefficients. This approach can be effectively used to support (or contradict) some physical assumptions regarding the scenario-like input. Through comparison to tree-based techniques, we show that GP models can be considered a satisfactory compromise when only a few model runs (~100) are available by presenting a high predictability and a concise and graphical way to map the dependence. %G English %Z Chaire industrielle OQUAIDO %2 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-03054381/document %2 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-03054381/file/Rohmer_etal_EMS.pdf %L hal-03054381 %U https://brgm.hal.science/hal-03054381 %~ SHS %~ SDE %~ BRGM %~ INSA-TOULOUSE %~ GIP-BE %~ FRANTIQ %~ TDS-MACS %~ INSA-GROUPE %~ BRGM-DO