%0 Conference Proceedings %T Fifty years of ground-motion models %+ Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) %A Douglas, John %F Invité %< sans comité de lecture %B International Workshop on Ground Motion Prediction Equation and Seismic Hazard Assessment %C Tokyo, Japan %3 International Workshop on Ground Motion Prediction Equation and Seismic Hazard Assessment %8 2015-03-12 %D 2015 %K ground-motion models %K ground motion prediction equations %K attenuation relations %K seismic hazard assessment %K aleatory variability %K epistemic uncertainty %K ground-motion simulations %Z Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]Conference papers %X It has now been over fifty years since the first model for the prediction of earthquake ground motions accounting for both magnitude and distance dependence was derived directly from strong-motion data (Esteva and Rosenblueth, 1964). These models are commonly known as: ground-motion models, ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or attenuation relation(ship)s. They are one of the key components of seismic hazard assessment since they predict the median ground motion at a site and its variability given the occurrence of a particular earthquake at a certain distance. A summary of the history of GMPEs and suggestions for future developments are presented here. %G English %2 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01112180/document %2 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01112180/file/2015Workshop_Douglas.pdf %L hal-01112180 %U https://brgm.hal.science/hal-01112180 %~ BRGM